I. Recent History of Radio and Technical Change
A story is playing out in America today which is truly amazing. It involves an old invention (the radio) coupled with probably the most powerful force on earth (the Internet). The combination of these two has led to an important new political force which is reshaping government, the media, the economy, international relations, as well as our own personal everyday habits, at least in America.
I will take it as given that we all have roughly the same prototypical notion of a conservative and liberal. I don’t want to get into any epistemological arguments about the true definition of a conservative. I will leave that to philosophers who have the time and the patience to explore such questions.
Radio itself is not conservative. It is a device or a machine. Indeed, it has been used by both conservatives and liberals. The history of radio is a story of constant adaptation. Talk radio is merely the most recent of these adaptations. Let's look at the history of radio as mass communication.
In the 1930's radio was the most emotional type of mass media around and was used effectively by FDR in his fireside chats, by pundits such as the eventually disgraced Father Charles Coughlin, and by such innovators as Orson Wells and his Mercury Theater, with its now historic “War of the Worlds” radio program.
Radio in the US was nearly destroyed by the advent of television in the 1950's. It survived by creating AM broadcasts of popular music and sports for young people and religious programs aimed primarily at adults. Popularity of radio was given a substantial boost by the creation of the transistor which gave radio its distinctive portability. Radio became something you could carry with you anywhere at anytime. The transistor made car radios economically feasible. Soon every car sold in the world came equipped with a car radio. When the FM band was introduced, the problem of static and noise was solved and the number of listeners rose once again. Radio remained important outside of the US during the 1960's and 1970's due to Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, the BBC World Service, Radio Moscow, etc. However, these types of programs with their commentary and analysis were seldom heard in the US and their formats were largely ignored by station managers.
You will remember that radio programs were capable of being recorded on cassette tape long before television programs had that capability. One could record a radio program and listen to it over and over. This meant that quite complicated programs which required intense concentration could be made, since the program could be reviewed over and over.
During the 1970's and 1980's radio in America got a boost with the creation and expansion of National Public Radio. NPR provided America with both in depth news and commentary. It gave people a reason to turn off their televisions and it was widely listened to by motorists during the morning hours with Morning Edition and in the afternoon with All Things Considered. Late at night, all across America, one could listen to Larry King on the Mutual Broadcast Network, as he gave countless numbers of interviews with newsmakers and took calls from listeners. There were numerous other shows and hosts at this time, and so was born the idea of talk radio.
Talk radio got a tremendous boost with the advent of Rush Limbaugh. Limbaugh established his program on AM radio to counter-balance what he perceived was a liberal bias in the popular media. He was an unabashed and unrepentant conservative Republican and was willing to state his views in stark, but nevertheless entertaining, ways. Many people criticized his show as nothing more than the simple-minded ranting of an ill-informed, mudslinging Republican hit man. Nevertheless, he became immensely popular with millions of listeners each week and his success spawned literally hundreds of copycats. He is therefore rightly considered the founding father of conservative talk radio.
Rush’s radio call-in program and its clones were obviously helped by the creation of the cell phone. Mobile phones allowed motorists listening to programs to call in and participate in the show, even during the morning rush hour and so called afternoon drive time. This core of listeners (Rush called them “dittoheads”) then tuned in to the show whenever they were at home, as well. Similarly, 24/7 streaming over the internet by radio stations such as WABC in New York and KRLA in Los Angeles, became popular and talk radio was quick to adopt this form of broadcast – free at first, but increasingly requiring a subscription. Rights issues continue to be a problem for the internet, although these are slowly being worked out by legislation and by litigation.
Currently, for some rental cars in the US, you can request XM Radio, which is a huge assortment of programs, rebroadcast through a satellite, with crystal digital clarity, part of which is conservative talk radio. XM Radio can be received nearly anywhere in the US, even in one’s house, provided you have the right equipment.
Thus, from a technical point of view, the transistor, car radios, cassette recording, AM-FM broadcasting, national syndication, call-in programs, cell phones, the internet, and most recently XM satellite radio, have all been factors which have led to the enduring success of talk radio today.
II. Are Americans Becoming More Conservative?
The distinguishing feature of American talk radio is that it is conservative. Probably less than 20% of broadcast hours are hosted by people who have a self professed liberal (or progressive) bias. Conservative talk radio programs are often characterized as nothing more than cheerleading shows for the Republican Party. They are hard hitting and often acerbic, to the point of being insulting, to some weak hearts. It is very much like the wild west of yesteryear, with gunslingers freely walking the streets and looking for a fight. Talk show hosts today think nothing of calling their listeners “fools”, “pigs”, “ignoramuses”, etc. But, setting the histrionics aside, can we explain the success of talk radio by viewing it as a natural market response to an increasingly conservative public.
When confronted by this fact, that most shows on talk radio are conservative, the typical response is that talk radio is merely a reaction to a general news media which is inherently biased towards liberal ideas. Talk radio constantly hammers at traditional media which is, according to it, relentlessly biased towards the Democratic Party and socialist philosophy.
There are really two questions here: (1) whether or not the media has a clear liberal bias, and (2) whether or not the US is becoming more and more conservative. The best evidence we have for the first question comes from the Pew Foundation and from a recent study discussed by Robert Barro in the Weekly Standard. The Pew study interviewed employees of media and found a distinct liberal bias which was really an admission by the employees of media. Barro’s article discusses a more scientific study. It first takes a well accepted liberal/conservative ranking of members of Congress based on voting records. It then counts the number of times which these members cite the top 200 prominent think tanks. Finally, it looks at how many times these organizations are discussed in the top 20 prominent media outlets. By doing so, it creates a reasonably accurate measure of liberal/conservative bias in the media. The basic finding is that the media is clearly liberal in its focus. The conservative bias to talk radio may very well be a reaction to this liberal media bias.
Unlike most media, talk radio has a free and unrestricted market. There have been numerous attempts to introduce liberal talk show hosts (e.g. Mario Cuomo, Alan Dershowitz, etc.) which have either failed or been greeted by the listening public rather lukewarmly. The current continuing effort is Air America, which has been a financial disaster and has not generated much excitement, despite being touted by traditional media and internet giants (e.g. Real.com). For the most part, it has hobbled along receiving financial support from liberals and liberal organizations. It is interesting that Air America is a highly orchestrated response of the Democratic Party and its supporters to the grassroots success of conservative talk radio. It was a political creation rather than a natural product of market evolution. By contrast, Alan Coombs, a self-professed liberal has been quite successful in talk radio.
But, even if we accept that talk radio is a response to a highly biased general media, is it possible that talk radio is successful because Americans as a whole are becoming more conservative.
The evidence that the US is becoming more conservative is harder to confirm scientifically. The simplest and perhaps best evidence is that more and more conservatives are being elected to office in the US. Ronald Reagan was given two terms despite the problems he encountered. George Bush 41 was only given one term, but Congress was decidedly conservative at the time and Bill Clinton was elected twice by being a centrist. George Bush 43 was given two terms and the Congress is currently in the hands of the Republicans. The 2004 election was a clear choice between conservative and liberal philosophies, and President Bush won the popular vote by over 3 million votes. Most governors in the US are Republicans and most states are Red. The Democratic Party, now a large umbrella group for various one issue voters (e.g., abortion, gay rights, minority rights, socialized health care, anti-war, tax the rich, etc.) has been forced to seek candidates who vaguely embrace all of these polarized political views. Thus, we have candidates like John Kerry, John Edwards, and Howard Dean, who are clearly left of center in the Democratic Party, if such a center can even be defined now. Many adult Americans simply cannot take the Democratic Party seriously anymore. And, the success of talk radio has come to reflect this.
Recent polls taken by the Gallup Organization also show that Americans are indeed becoming more conservative in their views. This shift is due in part to the natural response of a country which was attacked. It should be remembered that September 11th was actually and attempt to bring down the American government by political, military, and economic assassination. No other country has been so exposed to such a sneak attack by such a shadowy and elusive organization. The American response has been decisive and measured.
So, talk radio may best be described as embracing a new sense of "nationalistic populism”. It is therefore no wonder that talk radio hosts have been viewed as wrapping themselves in the flag. It is no wonder that their programs have been decried as hate speech by those who support a more internationalist approach to problems. The response of the mainstream media has been to see it as their mission to present a more liberal view of the news, thus balancing the pernicious effects of talk radio.
III. The Effect of Talk Radio on Politics Now and in the Future
It is certainly possible that talk radio has itself been instrumental in making Americans more conservative. However, I suspect that most economists would probably disagree with this view, since it assumes that the media is controlling the market, rather than the media simply responding to conditions of demand and supply for information.
In any event, many people are now convinced that talk radio played an important role in helping George Bush and the Republicans in the recent 2004 Presidential elections. Bush won because Kerry was unfairly attacked by the universe of talk radio. His Vietnam record was smeared and he was portrayed as a fanatic for lost liberal causes. He was a man who could not be decisive, according to most talk radio hosts. In this time of war crisis, John Kerry could not be depended upon to lead the country in a strong and decisive manner.
There is little doubt that Kerry was unmercifully attacked by talk radio. Certainly, I heard many cases of Democrats who claimed they would not vote for Kerry after hearing about his anti-Vietnam War activities. Talk radio also provided instant spin and fact checking after critical moments in the campaign. These rectifications included the CBS fiasco concerning Bush’s National Reserve service, Michael Moore’s and George Soros’ attempt to influence the election, as well as the various controversies surrounding the Presidential debates.
Gallup polls similarly indicate that an increasing number of Americans are getting their information and news from news/talk radio, as well as from the Internet. Talk radio is the natural complement to internet streaming. The blogs that have become very popular are providing talk radio with continuous spin and fact checking, all in real time. A good example is Hugh Hewitt, who is heard on hundreds of radio station across America. He made a television appearance on Bill O’Reilly’s show on Fox News. One hour later he was discussing the audio clip made of the television show on his own KRLA talk radio program—freely streamed all over the world. Shortly later it appeared on his personal blog, hyping his book explaining how that blogs are changing the media. He claims that there are now over 5 million people with daily blogs. This type of free wheeling news and commentary is common every day in the US and is available to anyone with an internet connection and a sufficient knowledge of the English language.
We should welcome this development of talk radio. It is a truly democratic form of news gathering and dissemination. But, with it comes an increased need for a discerning eye to properly weigh and assimilate all of the information one receives. It is this need to instill a sense of critical analysis into people, rather than blind trust, which will determine the future of talk radio and whether it will be a net gain or loss to society. A free, open, and unfettered medium is the only hope we have to achieve this. We should each of us welcome the challenge.